PPB March 2020

WATERCOOLER Technology Forecasted To Profoundly Change The World By 2040 A new study commissioned by Allianz Partners forecasts technological disruption over the next 20 years. As both consumers and professionals, we know the role of tech. It’s everywhere, entirely ubiquitous and, even when a digital detox is much needed, it can be difficult to pull away for long. But a new study commissioned by Allianz Partners, a global insurance and assistance company, “The Future of Healthcare, Mobility, Travel and the Home,” and written by British futurologist Ray Hammond, touches on seven major trends expected to drastically affect the world over the next 20 years. A major one—particularly for the promotional products industry—is the developments in IT, though the other six may have just as profound an effect. They include asymmetric global population growth, climate change, the renewable energy revolution, globalization, multiple revolutions in health care and the impact of the world's two billion poorest people. Read on for more on IT developments and check out the other six trends by searching for this article at pubs.ppai.org . Hammond reports that, today, the six-most valued companies worldwide are in technology. But as tech continues to move forward, it’ll take a few steps back in terms of human-held jobs and even interpersonal relationships. The rapid pace of growth, particularly with smartphone apps, will continue to change traditional business growth. Many markets, thus far, have been significantly affected, namely the hotel industry, with the advent of apps permitting travelers to book rooms in private homes; a change that has compelled many hotels to reduce prices and expand their range of services. Another is the restaurant industry, with apps allowing guests to reserve tables online and schedule third-party food deliveries. The banking and financial industry has also taken a hit due to apps that allow access to crowd-funded loans and new ways to make online payments and exchange foreign currencies. Taxi services, too, have been gravely affected by the plethora of ride-sharing apps, coupled with electric bike and scooter rentals now available in many cities. Artificial intelligence may cause many human-held jobs to become obsolete by 2040, posing challenges for workers that may lead them into the gig economy. By the mid-2030s, Hammond reports, the extent of digital disruption will be so great that a large population of people may be unable to find paid employment, and the county will shift to relying on “robot taxes,” or taxes on robots manning the formerly human-operated positions to provide a universal income for those who can’t find work. In addition, technology will continue transforming the way people interact with computers. According to Hammond, by 2040, smartphones will develop into a “body network” of smart devices, like connected wearables, contact lenses or glasses, earbuds, smart jewelry, and health and fitness monitors, some of which can be sewn directly into clothing, and that will be manned by a virtual assistant—something that’s already well under way. The virtual assistant, however, is predicted to become more “human-like,” and will be given a name and assigned a gender by the device’s owner. For many, Hammond says, the virtual assistant will even become a close and intimate friend, of sorts, despite the lack of a physical presence. (Perhaps the 2013 film Her , a movie starring Joaquin Phoenix where the main character falls in love with his virtual assistant, is not too far-fetched after all.) However, it’s important to note that although AI will continue performing at ever-rising levels of intelligence, it will not surpass human intelligence by 2040. To access the full report, visit: https://www.allianz-partners.com/ content/dam/onemarketing/awp/azpartnerscom/reports/futorology/ Allianz-Partners-Megatrends-of-the-21st-Century-ENG.pdf | MARCH 2020 | 81 THINK