PPB August 2018

FEATURE | Strategic Foresight The data shows that the speed at which civilization is changing is exponential. This means that both the intensity and periodicity of innovation across all markets, all industries and all cultures are increasing with each increment. This is the difference between climbing 30 equidistant steps versus climbing 30 steps, with each step doubling in distance from the previous step. The first scenario is linear, and you arrive 30 units beyond where you started. The second scenario is exponential, and you arrive about one billion units beyond where you started. The difference is beyond dramatic. Take a look at where we came from: we developed language, established agriculture, organized commerce, created the industrial revolution, invented the computer—each stage not only occurred in a shorter period than the stage before it, it also synthesized each of the previous stages, allowing society to grow more complex and capable. Analysis of the data reveals that this combination of speed and change is everywhere. Compare computer processing power to the size of the circuitry. Graph it and you get an exponential curve. How about America’s GDP? It’s been growing exponentially, too. Private manufacturing? Exponential curve. Human life expectancy? Exponential. Exponential trends can appear linear when seen from the perspective of the early stages, like driving toward mountains. As you approach the mountain you’re barely gaining elevation, if at all. But suddenly you reach a point where the terrain around you begins to climb steeply. Suddenly you’re halfway, or more, up the side of the mountain. What we’re experiencing, and have been experiencing for the last 80 years, is the “knee of the curve.” Relative to the progress occurring over our lifetime, everything seems to be moving linearly. But not for long, and there’s only one direction we can go, call it what you will—up, out, further, more, beyond. We’re already seeing many innovations that appear to be exponential in nature. Artificial intelligence that drives the Internet of Things is one example. Many futurists predict this “explosive phase” will be in full swing between 2035 and 2050. Strategic Foresight Is for Businesses of Every Scale We want to encourage you to use these plays no matter the scale of your operation. Every strategy mentioned here has applications across the continuum of business ventures, from small mom-and- pop shops to the largest firms. If your scale is small, there are many ways to downsize the plays in this text. If, for example, we suggest polling your customer base as one way to gather market intelligence, this could mean a simple conversation with several customers. It could also mean sending a short questionnaire to a large group of customers via social media—whatever seems realistic, yet actionable for your operational scale. If you lead a larger venture—a multimillion- or multibillion-dollar organization that’s ready to up the ante— conducting strategic foresight is your most powerful investment. You can scale the plays up a couple notches. Ask yourself what your accumulated resources can accomplish (while still maintaining your operational excellence, of course). If we recommend you poll customers, distribute an online survey through your listserv tailored to specific demographics. Use your network to gain access to larger pools of data. The larger the scale of your plays, the larger your rewards will be. Regardless of your scale, if you’re able to develop a capacity for strategic foresight and continually anticipate emerging trends, you’ve acquired an enormous asset. Serving Your Industry Let me remind you that you are part of something bigger. As you help your team and your organization, you help PPAI. Your market intelligence, your lessons learned, your success as a business—they can all be a valuable contribution to PPAI and the Association’s commitment to fostering large-scale and long-term growth for promotional product organizations. No matter how big or small your business is, when you share, you serve your industry. This article is copyrighted by Promotional Products Association International. All rights reserved, including the right of reproduction in whole or in part. Seth Kahan is a recognized expert in innovation and strategy. He has served as a trusted advisor to over 100 CEOs, and has worked closely with the president of the World Bank, the director of the Peace Corps, and 100-plus trade associations and professional societies. Kahan has intensively studied strategic foresight. He helps leaders examine the future and provides them with expert guidance to help their organizations grow in today’s tumultuous business environment. His proven results in helping CEOs execute strategies for large-scale change, innovation and growth have earned him the designation of Thought-leader and Exemplar in Change Leadership from the Society for Advancement of Consulting® and the title of Visionary from the Center for Association Leadership. He has served as a member of the board of directors for the American Geophysical Union, the Columbia Lighthouse for the Blind and the Council of Better Business Bureaus. He founded Visionary Leadership® as the umbrella organization through which he works with forward-thinking executives. Seth@VisionaryLeadership. com, VisionaryLeadership.com. Look for this symbol for articles related to strategic foresight. 32 | AUGUST 2018 |