PPB August 2018

Strategic Foresight | FEATURE Strategic foresight is not a luxury of a flourishing organization; it’s an indispensable tactic to stay relevant and succeed. Speed And Change Are Not Slowing Down The shifts in the market that make innovation imperative are happening at a faster and faster rate. It’s easy to buy into the mentality that your industry niche is growing or changing in a linear fashion, with each major shift proportional to the last. But we’re living at a time in which our experience of innovation skews our perception of its rate of change. The past 50 to 60 years have produced monumental changes in computing, global politics, agriculture, and every other branch of human endeavor. These shifts were happening, but were comfortably spread out, creating a false sense of stability in the rate at which civilization was changing. Most people fail to realize that these changes are not linear. They are not occurring in increments proportional to one another. It only seems that way from a particular perspective. What does it take to identify emergent trends related to your business model, industry and/or customer base? We have developed a five-step cycle for conducting the strategic foresight process. Because it’s a cycle, it keeps repeating, each time improving upon itself. The order is important. To follow the five-step cycle correctly you must: SCAN 2 ENGAGE 1 1 2 3 4 5 CONNECT 3 MEASURE 5 ACT 4 ENGAGE strategists a. CEO and senior team b. Board c. Forward-thinking volunteers d. Staff who scan and collect e. Thought leaders MEASURE a. After-action review i What did we think was going to happen? ii What happened? iii What did we learn? b. ROI i. Quantitative ii Qualitative SCAN the environment and collect emerging trends in three areas: the trade association model, the industry (promotional products) and members’ lives. Do this by: a. Engaging the strategists b. Conducting focus groups and surveys c. Building a resource pool from other sources including the strategists listed here and online. CONNECT the dots, analyze a. Timeline to maturity i Now ii Imminent – within current planning cycle iii Upcoming – next planning cycle iv Long-term b. Likelihood i Certain iii Possible ii High iv Remote c. Identify secondary impacts d. Identify key indicators ACT a. Resource allocation b. Strategy The Strategic Foresight Cycle The Strategic Foresight Cycle is at the core of this playbook’s approach. ENGAGE STRATEGISTS SCAN THE ENVIRONMENT CONNECT THE DOTS TAKE ACTION MEASURE THE RESULTS | AUGUST 2018 | 31